I recently wrote a paper with a friend (Gemini 3 Pro) about the very real risk to tech startups in 2025 posed by Hyper Innovation. Here are three examples of why this threat is so real:

1. Frontier LLMs are improving their models at a pace that makes new tech look like old tech in six months
2. The person sitting at the desk across from you can build your product just as easily as you did (leveraging newer tools)
3. Frontier LLMs are ‘Sherlocking’ app startups

We are getting ready to launch Escalator, and there is already an upgrade planned for the ‘campaign’ interface because the landscape has changed so much since we started designing the product 10 months ago.